Solo Brands released earnings last week and talked about seeing positive early signs from their new products. They performed a major transformation on the company but there’s more work to do.

They still have some scaling down to do in 2026 to align their expense structure with the levels of revenue that they’re currently at. Today, they issued revenue guidance for 2026 and they expect some decline from 2025.

They had $316.8 million of revenue in 2025. In 2026, they project to perform in the range of $280 million to $310 million. For reference, at their peak in 2022 they hit $517.6 million in revenue.

Today, ahead of an upcoming investor conference, we are providing annual guidance. We entered 2026 as a much leaner business with a significantly improved cost structure and greater visibility into our forward trajectory. Despite an anticipated year over year decline in net sales and adjusted EBITDA performance in the first quarter of 2026, due in part to some retail re-timing from late Q1 into early Q2 and marketing investment in new product launches, we are encouraged by early signs of improving demand and retail sell-ins heading into the second quarter. As we anticipate sales rates to stabilize, driven by our new product launches, we expect to deliver meaningful improvements in bottom line profitability for 2026.

John Larson, President and Chief Executive Officer

It’s a tough time for any business to issue guidance with all the uncertainty worldwide, the impact on oil prices, and the added consumer spending headwind from it on top of an already tough environment. This is overshadowing the cost of goods pickup from potentially lower tariffs.

Looking at how Solo Brands guided EBITDA, they expect a challenging consumer environment being somewhat offset by lower cost of goods and more streamlined operating expense. They have quite a bit of EBITDA margin improvement from 2025 to 2026. They’re projecting to go from $18.5 million to $24 million to $30 million in 2026 respectively.

Their guidance assumes the following.

• Continued uneven demand environment
• Estimated tariff impacts in light of recent judicial decisions, including receipt of anticipated refunds and rate reductions
• Positive impact from existing and incremental payroll reductions and restructuring discussed on March 19, 2026, earnings conference call

The second bullet is an interesting one because it has arguably as much uncertainty as the demand environment. It remains to be seen what will happen with tariffs, but it sounds like not only are they factoring in lower tariffs but also receiving refunds.

Factoring those in their financials would be part of the reason for their planned margin improvements. They would likely model them as reduced inventory cost on their balance sheet for products they paid tariffs on and on future turn. They also may be modeling in a one time good guy in cost of goods from a refund check.

We’ll see how that develops later on this year. Regardless though, investors weren’t happy with Solo Brands earnings or their forecast. Their stock went from being around $9 last Wednesday to dropping to around $3.50 at close today. The velocity of that is a little scary with the $1 listing threshold that they don’t want to hit again.